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SAOGA Networking Breakfast Thursday 31 May 2012
SAOGA Networking Breakfast - 31st May 2012
The South African Oil and Gas Alliance invites you to their bi-monthly networking breakfast event in May.
Speaker: TBC
Topic: TBC
Venue: CPUT Hotel School, Granger Bay
Date: 31 May 2012
Time: 7:00 for 7:30 to 09:30
Cost: R120.00 for non-members - R80.00 for members
RSVP: Online Registration
RSVPs for breakfast will be dealt with on a first-come first-serve basis, with preference given to members.
Bank Details
Account Holder Cape Oil and Gas Supply Initiative
Bank ABSA
Branch Code 632 005
Account Number 4059 227 948
Categories: SAOGA Events
SAOGA Networking Breakfast Thursday 31 May 2012
SAOGA Networking Breakfast - 31st May 2012
The South African Oil and Gas Alliance invites you to their bi-monthly networking breakfast event in May.
Speaker: TBC
Topic: TBC
Venue: CPUT Hotel School, Granger Bay
Date: 31 May 2012
Time: 7:00 for 7:30 to 09:30
Cost: R120.00 for non-members - R80.00 for members
RSVP: Online Registration
RSVPs for breakfast will be dealt with on a first-come first-serve basis, with preference given to members.
Bank Details
Account Holder Cape Oil and Gas Supply Initiative
Bank ABSA
Branch Code 632 005
Account Number 4059 227 948
Updating World Deepwater Oil & Gas Discovery
This a guest post by Jean Laherrère, a long-time guest contributor to TheOilDrum.
Defining deepwater oil as the offshore resource found in water depths over 500 m, the data available as of October of 2010 was pointing to an ultimate around 150 Gb. This is the result of an extrapolation made last year:
Figure 1: world deepwater (>500 m) creaming curve 1971-Oct 2010The previous ultimate estimate in 2008 was 100 Gb, missing the third cycle in subsalt plays.
Figure 2: world deepwater (>500 m) creaming curve 1971-2007The cumulative discovery versus time with the data up to October of 2010 implied that most discoveries would be made before 2025.
Figure 3: world deepwater (>500 m) cumulative discovery versus time 1971-2009Applying the Hubbert linearisation method to oil discovery confirmed an ulitmate of about 150 Gb.
Figure 4: world deepwater (>500 m) oil discovery Hubbert linearisationThe average oil field size has been around 100 Mb the last 20 years and a little less for gas in Mboe. At the same time there is a sharp change in the number of fields since 1995: it was less than 10 before that date and has been over 50 since!
Figure 5: world deepwater (>500 m) annual oil & gas sizeThe plot of cumulative discovery versus field elevation shows that the break for water depth is more about 200 m rather than 500 m.
Figure 6: cumulative 2P discovery versus field elevation per continent (mid 2009)An update of this forecast was made with the data available up to October of 2011, this time with deepwater defined as the resource lying under 200 m of water or more.
The IHS claims that deepwater is for depths over 400 m, but the database indicates that in the terrain deepwater is for over 200 m deep. In the US Gulf of Mexico the deepwater royalty relief act of 1995 refers to depths over 200 m (656 ft), but the MMS (now BOEMRE) reports depths from 1000 ft onwards. There is little consensus on the definition of deepwater, just as for ultra deep.
The annual crude less extra heavy oil discovery is shown here since 1900, with both definitions of deepwater (>200 m and >500 m).
Figure 7: world annual crude less extra-heavy oil discovery and deepwater (>200 & 500 m)The same data, now plotted as cumulative discovery.
Figure 8: world cumulative crude less extra-heavy oil discovery and deepwaterThe creaming curve for world deepwater oil, this time defined as over 200 m deep, is here extrapolated with two cycles towards 200 Gb, meaning about 50 Gb for the water column interval 200-500 m. There is enough uncertainty to allow a third cycle, with a possible increase in the ultimate, but another new subsalt play is needed!
Figure 9: world deepwater (>200 m) creaming curve 1969-Oct 2011Combining oil and gas yields a simpler creaming curve, except for the last 200 fields.
Figure 10: world deepwater (>200 m) oil plus gas creaming curve 1969-Oct 2011The cumulative discovery versus time plot displays a sharp increase in the last 15 years, cause by the subsalt plays.
Figure 11: world deepwater (>200 m) cumulative discoveryThe plot for oil discovery per continent shows that Latin America has the sharpest increase, due to Brasil. In the past there were jumps in the North Sea with Gullfalks, Troll and Snore in 1978, and in the Caspian with Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli in 1985.
Figure 12: world deepwater (>200 m) cumulative oil discovery per continentThe plot for gas discoveries per continent shows the large jump in 1988 with Shtokman, and the recent increase in Asia since 2000.
Figure 13: world deepwater (>200 m) cumulative natural gas discovery per continentThe creaming curve for oil per continent shows that Brasil with the subsalt discoveries has the largest increase and that North America still has some potential, though the average size here is quite less than in Brasil.
Figure 14: world deepwater (>200 m) oil creaming curve per continent 1969-Oct 2011The creaming curve for gas shows that the best result is for the CIS (Former Soviet Union) with the Barentz and Caspian 9 discoveries. In second comes Asia and the least efficient is North America. The Middle East with 20 Tcf, mainly from Israel, is at a good start.
Figure 15: world deepwater (>200 m) gas creaming curve per continent 1969-Oct 2011The average field size is about 100 Mb for oil and 400 Gcf for gas.
Figure 16: world deepwater (>200 m) oil & gas average field sizeConclusion
Subsalt discoveries are now well taken into account in the deepwater oil ultimate and have increased it by around 50 Gb since 2008. It is a significant increase, but very small compared to the uncertainty of past world oil discovery, with the 300 Gb of speculative resources (confirmed by Sadad Al-Huseini) in OPEC reserves and with the 150 Gb correction from ABC1 reserves (used in scout databases) to 2P reserves. For more than ten years I corrected the ABC1 reserves data for the FSU by 30% to reduce them to 2P. This is based on the comparison of ABC1 field data with ultimates obtained from oil decline profiles in some Russian fields. Now Gazprom publishes in their annual report both the ABC1 and 2P reserves, the latter from audits, showing that this 30% correction is correct for oil and gas (ratio 2P/ABC1 = 70 %); nevertheless this figure seems higher for condensate.
Figure 17: Gazprom reserves ratio 2P/ABC1 2003-2010 from annual reportsFurthermore, I have some doubt on the reliability of some deepwater oil reserves figures. My paper entitled “Deepwater GOM reserves versus production” (part I, part II and part III) shows that the oil estimate of deepwater fields reserves seem optimistic for the Gulf of Mexico, and in particular, Thunder Horse.
The Brasilian subsalt reservoirs are complex and there is little historical production, with only a pilot project online since October of 2010 in Tupi, now called Lula (with 14 wells already drilled) with 6 Gb of 2P reserves. The BG Group, which holds a 25% stake at Lula, has reported on the first production test with a FPSO, three producing wells and one gas injector. While it was expected to reach maximum production at 100 000 b/d, it actually peaked at 70 000 b/d in December of 2011, and has registered a decline of 5 000 b/d in the following two months.
Figure 18: Lula first production: Oct 2010-Jan 2012 from BP GroupIn its 2012 annual report, the BG Group forecasts gross production capacity in this play to reach 2.3 Mboe/d in 2017, with a total of 13 FPSO in the Lula, Cernambi (formerly Iracema) and Guara fields.
Deepwater oil production will help reduce the decline in world oil production from aging fields. The IEA claims that four Saudi Arabias need to be discovered by 2030 to replace the present decline in production (about 5 %/a). The deepwater ultimate is likely to represent less than half of Saudi Arabia’s oil ultimate. It is not enough!
Drumbeat: May 18, 2012
David Strahan - Dump the pump: could peak oil be voluntary?
People have fretted about when the world’s oil will start to run out ever since M. King Hubbert came up with the idea of “peak oil” back in the 1950s. The American geologist, who worked for Shell, pointed out that we are destined to reach a moment when oil production stops rising and goes into terminal decline. With it, the era of cheap oil that fuelled the post-war economic boom would end. The idea still provokes great debate, and many forecasters are predicting that global production will peak by the end of this decade as supplies dwindle.
Now there is a different view. A small number of analysts forecast that oil production will start to fall by 2020 – not because we are running out, but because we just won’t need it. They argue that the world will wean itself off oil voluntarily, through major advances in vehicle technology. Peak oil will not be a supply-side phenomenon brought about by shrinking reserves, but by motorists buying electric cars and conventional cars with highly efficient engines. If they are right, this shift will start the long-term transition from oil to electricity as the main transport fuel, reduce economies’ vulnerability to spikes in the oil price, and cap greenhouse emissions from crude oil.
Oil hits 2012 low under $107 on euro zone turmoil LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices slipped below $107 a barrel on Friday and hit a 2012 low as investors fought shy of riskier, growth-oriented assets on fears that Greece would leave the euro, and after a downgrade of 16 Spanish banks by Moody's added to the contagion gloom.
..."The driving factor is still what is going on in Europe with the downgrades of the Spanish banks and very negative sentiment towards risk investments," said Eugen Weinberg, an analyst at Commerzbank in Frankfurt. "It's not surprising to see further falls in Brent today."
Oil May Fall as Seaway Insufficient to Ease Glut, Survey Shows
Oil may decline next week on concern that the reversal of the Seaway Pipeline will not be enough to alleviate a record supply glut in the central U.S., a Bloomberg survey showed.
Nineteen of 34 analysts, or 56 percent, forecast oil will drop through May 25. Nine respondents, or 26 percent, predicted prices will rise and six estimated they will be little changed. Last week, 48 percent of surveyed analysts expected a decrease.
Unlike the East, gas prices stay stubbornly high out West
LOS ANGELES – Declining prices for crude oil have brought relief at the gas pump for much of the nation, but not for drivers on the West Coast, where retail gasoline prices have been rising this month.
"We are seeing a tale of two coasts," says Michael Green, spokesman for AAA, which monitors pump prices. "On the West Coast, gas prices are rising steadily, while on the East Coast they are steadily decreasing."
Oil markets vulnerable to more than 1 mil b/d loss of Iran's oil: IEA
Oil market fundamentals could become much tighter in the second half of 2012 if EU and US sanctions keep more than 1 million b/d of Iranian oil exports off the market and non-OPEC output disruptions take a turn for the worse, the head of the International Energy Agency's Oil Industry and Markets Division said Friday.
Obama may tap Strategic Petroleum Reserve
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Despite the recent fall in oil prices, analysts say President Obama may tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as sanctions on Iran take hold.
While oil prices have fallen from over $110 a barrel to near $90 in recent weeks, tougher sanctions on Iran begin to take effect at the end of June.
That could mean up to 1 million barrels a day could soon be taken off the table, resulting in a possible spike in oil prices.
IMF tells Kuwait to cut spending or risk running out of oil money
Kuwait faces the risk of running out of oil revenues by 2017 if it continues its spending policy, the IMF has warned.
The wake-up call from the fund comes as public finances deteriorate from rising public sector wages, pension costs and rapid population growth.
The Biggest Threat to High Oil Prices
The biggest threat to oil prices isn’t excess supply, uneven demand or slowing global growth.
It’s the rise of the U.S. dollar – or more precisely, the fall of the euro.
UK gas at two-month low as Norway imports treble
LONDON (Reuters) - British short-term gas prices fell to a two-month low on Friday after a high increase in imports via Norway's Langeled pipeline flooded the market with gas and balanced out supply losses resulting from maintenance work elsewhere.
Gas for within-day delivery fell nearly 3 pence, around five percent day on day, to 55.50 pence per therm as the market was oversupplied by more than 20 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d).
Excelerate Energy plans natural gas export vessel for Gulf Coast
Excelerate Energy announced Tuesday that it will develop the nation’s first floating liquefaction facility at Port Lavaca on the Texas Gulf Coast, to export U.S. natural gas.
Enterprise And Enbridge Announce Completion Of Seaway Pipeline Reversal
Houston, TX and Calgary, AB (Marketwire) - Enterprise Products Partners L.P. and Enbridge Inc. today announced that modifications to the Seaway crude oil pipeline allowing it to transport crude oil from Cushing, Oklahoma to the U.S. Gulf Coast have been completed. The pipeline is in the process of being commissioned, and the first flows of crude oil into the line are expected to begin this weekend. The reversal of the 500-mile, 30-inch diameter pipeline, which had been in northbound service since 1995, provides North American producers with the infrastructure needed to access more than 4 million barrels per day ("BPD") of Gulf Coast refinery demand.
Gazprom Is Still Calculating Discount for Bulgaria - Russian Media
Bulgaria managed to negotiate special terms for the supply of Russian gas regardless of its abrupt withdrawal from the Burgas-Alexandroupolis oil pipeline and the Belene NPP energy projects, Russian media outlets note.
Gazprom Hopes to Build Second Baltic Sea Pipeline
With the planned Nabucco natural gas pipeline in southern Europe hitting snag after snag, Russian natural gas giant Gazprom is considering the construction of a second Baltic Sea pipeline to go with the just-finished Nord Stream. With unconventional natural gas from the US flooding the market, however, the strategy is not without risk.
ANALYSIS: Russia sets European oil export, benchmark grand plan
Paris (Platts)- Russia's investment in new oil transportation infrastructure is part of a grand plan that owes much more to long-term profit maximization than it does to short-term economics.
This is evident from state oil pipeline company Transneft investing billions of dollars in significantly more oil export capacity than it expects to see growth in crude oil output.
Bulgaria, Gazprom hope to ink deal to cut price of Russian gas
Bulgaria and Russian gas giant Gazprom are preparing to sign an agreement to cut the price of Russian gas, with Sofia seeking a 11.1% discount, according to market sources Friday.
China's Ningbo Shuhua opens largest crude oil terminal in Asia: Sinopec
Ningbo Shihua Crude Oil Terminal Co Ltd has opened a crude oil shipping terminal on Daxie Island in east China's Zhejiang province -- Asia's largest -- joint venture partner Sinopec said in a statement on its website Thursday.
China to exclude foreign firms in shale gas tender
(Reuters) - China will exclude foreign firms from bidding in its second tender for shale gas blocks, despite a need for overseas technology to help exploit massive reserves of gas trapped within shale rock formations in the world's top energy user.
Mitt Romney vows immediate approval of Keystone XL on first day in White House
WASHINGTON - Mitt Romney is vowing to approve TransCanada's Keystone XL pipeline on his first day on the job if elected U.S. president in November.
Enbridge Pipeline That Ruptured Will Be Enlarged To Carry More Oil, Company Says
TRAVERSE CITY, Mich. (AP) — Enbridge Inc. will enlarge a pipeline that ruptured nearly two years ago in southwestern Michigan so it can carry more oil from deposits in western Canada and North Dakota, a company official said Thursday.
Shell's Majnoon deal highlights Iraq oil target verdict
(Reuters) - Shell is pressing ahead with talks over final development of Iraq's Majnoon oilfield, a senior executive told Reuters, and a lower, more realistic oil production target is a core part of discussions.
Majnoon is one of four southern super giant fields that are vital to Iraq's ambition to at least double its oil output and put it firmly back among the world's top producers.
But crunch time is approaching.
Iranian protesters denounce Saudi-Bahrain union plan
(Reuters) - Thousands of Iranians rallied on Friday against plans for union between Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, state television showed, and an influential cleric denounced the idea as an "ill-fated plot" that will never be tolerated by Muslims.
Tension between Iran and U.S.-allied Gulf Arab states has run high in recent months with Arab leaders accusing Tehran of fomenting Shi'ite Muslim unrest in Bahrain - a charge that Shi'ite Iran and the protesters deny.
Japan trade minister: considering options on Iran oil payments
(Reuters) - Japan's Trade Minister Yukio Edano said on Friday the government is examining options for paying for oil imports from Iran after a U.S. court ordered a freezing of Iranian assets held by Japanese banks.
Energy-deficient India turns to UAE for oil supply
Under pressure from the US to cut its oil imports from Iran, India has decided to set up a high-level joint task force on investment which will also look into securing more oil supplies from UAE that has assured it of "increased" energy exports.
India looking at Saudi, Iraq to diversify its oil sourcing
WASHINGTON: India is looking at Saudi Arabia and Iraq to diversify its global oil purchase while making efforts to reduce its dependence on Iranian oil, a top Obama Administration official has told US lawmakers.
Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia Robert Blake told lawmakers at a Congressional hearing on South Asia that India is working to cut down the import from Iran not because of the American influence but because of commercial considerations as well.
East Timor Ends First Decade Fighting Oil Curse
The Southeast Asian nation of East Timor celebrates 10 years of independence tomorrow night facing a challenge that has eluded emerging economies across the world: How to stop oil wealth wrecking your economy.
After a decade of contract delays, deadlocked oilfield negotiations with Woodside Petroleum Ltd. and a political crisis that almost precipitated civil war, East Timor has moved from the poorest country in Asia, dependent entirely on international aid, to one with a $10 billion resources fund and almost entirely dependent on oil.
The U.S. Has A Lot Of Shale Oil, So What?
Quite a few conservative commentators are making waves about a Government Accountability Office statement (PDF) which says that 1.5 trillion barrels of shale oil in Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming may be recoverable.
Their reactions are all along the same lines: this shale-oil reserve could “by itself supply domestic oil consumption for more than 200 years”, and “will Obama, in a possible second term, block the development of the resources that can assure America’s economic supremacy for generations?”
Typically simplistic. If only it were that easy.
Technology can unlock new fields, curb fears of peak oil
Technology advancements in the energy sector can boost oil and gas production, improve safety and curb fears that fossil fuels are rapidly running out, a Chevron official said today.
During the opening session of a Houston energy conference this morning, Jay Pryor, Chevron’s vice president for business development, touted a number of technology advancements that have improved the efficiency and safety of fossil fuel production, including enhanced oil recovery, 3D seismic imaging, horizontal wells, and hydraulic fracturing.
“Because of technology, we are producing in places once just dreamed of,” Pryor said, at the 10th annual KPMG Global Energy Conference. “In lifting those reserves, we’ve raised doubts about the eminence of peak oil.”
Scraping the bottom of the barrel
Several articles in the international media in recent months have claimed that worries about peak oil – the peak and decline in yearly world oil production – are unfounded because vast new reserves of unconventional oil are coming on stream. But a closer look at these new sources of oil casts doubt on this assertion.
Data from the US Energy Information Administration show that conventional crude oil production – oil from wells accessed using typical drilling techniques – has been essen- tially flat at around 74-million barrels per day (mbpd) since 2005. Looking at the history of con- ventional crude oil discoveries, this is not surprising – they peaked in the mid-1960s and have been on a declining trend ever since.
The Energy Revolution on Our Doorstep
A major plank in my golden age scenario for the 2020’s is the collapse of the cost of energy. This won’t occur because of a single big discovery, but from a 1,000 small ones that aggregate together to create a leveraged effect. The upshot is that we may be free of OPEC in 3-5 years, and completely energy independent not long after that. The impact on financial markets and global standards of living will be huge.
Author’s no-growth prediction runs out of gas
EDMONTOIN - Jeff Rubin says we’ve entered a new era. The world just doesn’t know it yet.
In his new book, The End of Growth, the former chief economist at CIBC World Markets says high energy prices are here to stay.
Not for a month, a quarter or a year, but forever. The result? Economic growth has hit a brick wall, and the good ol’ days will never return, he warns.
Legislation Is Proposed to Extend Helium Sales Deadline
In 1996, Congress passed a law to privatize the Amarillo helium by requiring the federal government to sell nearly all of its reserves. But the law expires at the end of 2014, years before the sell-off will be complete. Last week a Senate committee heard testimony about the bipartisan Helium Stewardship Act, which would extend the time period for the sales. Walter Nelson, an official with Air Products and Chemicals, a Pennsylvania-based helium refiner, warned that without such a move, chaos would ensue, with significant disruptions to industries like semiconductors and fiber optics.
“Imagine the impact on global markets if 30 percent of the world’s oil reserves were off limits,” he testified.
Shell Kulluk Air Permit Contested By Environmental Groups
ANCHORAGE, Alaska (AP) — Environmental and Alaska Native groups on Wednesday appealed an air permit granted by the Environmental Protection Agency to a Shell Oil drilling ship that could be used this summer in the Arctic Ocean off Alaska's northern shore.
The groups claim the Kulluk and support vessels will put harmful pollutants into the skies, adding problems to a region already beset by climate warming, and that the EPA granted the permit without consideration of all national environmental laws and regulations.
How much impact did the North Sea gas leak have on the environment?
While the Elgin North Sea natural gas leak that was plugged on Wednesday was a massive financial blow for its operator Total, it appears the incident had little impact on the environment in terms of global warming and local marine life.
Vt. becomes 1st state to ban hydraulic fracturing
MONTPELIER, Vt. — Vermont Gov. Peter Shumlin on Wednesday signed into law the nation's first ban on a hotly debated natural gas drilling technique that involves blasting chemical-laced water deep into the ground.
The Democrat, surrounded at a Statehouse ceremony by environmentalists and Twinfield Union School students who pushed for the ban, said the law may help Vermont set an example for other states. The ban may be largely symbolic, though, because there is believed to be little to no natural gas or oil beneath the surface in Vermont.
Siena Poll: New Yorkers are evenly split on fracking issue
LOUDONVILLE - A new poll shows that New Yorkers are evenly split on the fracking issue. That's according to the latest Siena Poll.
North Korea Seen Restarting Work on Nuclear Reactor
The reactor, for possible completion by 2014-2015, would be able to supply needed electricity as well as fissile material for a nuclear weapon, the report says. It quoted a former deputy director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Olli Heinonen, as saying that once the reactor is operational, it would be capable of producing enough plutonium to add “a little more than one bomb per year” to North Korea’s nuclear weapons stockpile.
Global generation capacity for nuclear power has grown to over 346 gigawatts since 1955
Nuclear generating capacity additions began in the 1950s and now top 346 gigawatts worldwide (click on animation above to assess trends). The first nuclear reactor to produce electricity was a very small experimental reactor in the United States in 1951. Currently, 30 countries have nuclear power programs.
From the early 1970s to the early 1990s, nuclear power steadily grew around the world with brief periods of relatively slow growth following the accidents at Three Mile Island (North America, 1979) and Chernobyl (Former Soviet Union, 1986), as the nuclear industry absorbed the lessons learned from both accidents. Since then, nuclear power capacity has remained relatively stable throughout most of the world, with the exception of rapidly developing countries in Asia. An upcoming Today in Energy article will address post-Fukushima impacts on Japan's nuclear capacity.
Denmark aims low with green energy policy
SAMSO, Denmark (Reuters) - Over a beer or two, Danes like to tell a story that goes like this: One night the energy ministers of the countries around the North Sea got together to divide up its oil and gas wealth. The Danish minister got very drunk, but the Norwegian managed to stay sober. As a result, Norway carved out a jagged shape that included Ekofisk, which has proved to be a major field, and Denmark was left with the dregs.
Regarded as a model of how to spend oil and gas wealth wisely, Norway has stashed away surplus revenues from exports while hydropower caters for the bulk of its domestic electricity needs.
But Denmark has also found its own path to energy pragmatism, supplementing its relatively few oil rigs with wind turbines and a deep commitment to energy saving.
Is There a Clean Energy Standard in Our Future?
Americans want it, but how much will it cost?
Just because Congress is unlikely to pass a carbon tax or a cap-and-trade bill anytime soon does not mean the United States can't work on lowering its greenhouse gas emissions. It turns out there's more than one way for America to skin that carbon cat.
Ford C-Max hybrid to start at $25,995
The C-Max is a five-passenger crossover that looks like a small minivan but with conventional doors.
Here are the top 10 'bikeable' cities. Did yours make the list?
A score of 90 to 100 means the city is a "Biker's Paradise"; scoring 70 to 89 means the area is "Very Bikeable," while 50 to 69 means the city is merely "Bikeable." Any lower than that, and the city is deemed only "Somewhat Bikeable." A trio of public health professors at the University of British Columbia helped develop Bike Score.
Healthy food no more costly than junk food, government finds
Contrary to popular belief, many healthy foods are no more expensive than junk food, according to a large new government analysis.
In fact, carrots, onions, pinto beans, lettuce, mashed potatoes, bananas and orange juice are all less expensive per portion than soft drinks, ice cream, chocolate candy, French fries, sweet rolls and deep-fat fried chicken patties, the report says.
Will 3D printers make food sustainable?
Before the end of the year, if Professor Mark Post of Maastricht University gets his way, the world's first test-tube burger will be flame-grilled by Heston Blumenthal at The Fat Duck in Bray and served to a celebrity guest. Meals at this restaurant don't come cheap, but this one will be the climax of a €250,000 research project – and a milestone in Post's quest to find new ways of feeding the world, without destroying the planet.
His petri-dish patty will be made from a mixture of fat and cow muscle grown from stem cells in a culture of foetal calf serum (that's blood plasma without the clotting agents) – a technology trialled in February. It may sound less appetising than a Big Mac – but it could bring huge environmental benefits. Producing beef this way results in a 96% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to rearing animals, and uses 45% of the energy, 1% of the land and 4% of the water associated with conventional beef production.
U.S. Solar Tariffs on Chinese Cells May Boost Prices
The U.S. yesterday imposed tariffs of as much as 250 percent on Chinese-made solar cells to aid domestic manufacturers beset by foreign competition, though critics said the decision may end up raising prices and hurting the U.S. renewable energy industry.
The U.S. Commerce Department ruled that Chinese manufacturers sold cells in the U.S. at prices below the cost of production and announced preliminary antidumping duties ranging from 31 percent to 250 percent, depending on the manufacturer. China criticized the action, saying the U.S. is hurting itself and cooperation between the world’s two largest economies.
Solar sector looks to Saudi plan
Huge investments in solar energy by emerging nations such as Saudi Arabia could spell the end of a crisis of overcapacity in the panel-making industry, according to one of the biggest producers of solar panels.
Hawaii first state to ban plastic bags at checkout
By now, it’s hardly news when a city bans plastic bags at checkout counters -- but an entire state? That’s happened in Hawaii, where Honolulu County has joined the state’s three other counties to give Hawaii a first-in-the-nation title.
"Passing the bans did take an effort -- change always does -- but people seemed to understand the need for such an effort," Robert Harris, director of the Sierra Club's Hawaii chapter, told msnbc.com of the two-year campaign across the islands.
Brazil’s Leader Faces Defining Decision on Bill Relaxing Protection of Forests
RIO DE JANEIRO — President Dilma Rousseff is facing one of the defining moments of her presidency as pressure builds on her to veto a bill that would open vast protected areas of forests to ranching and farming, potentially reversing Brazil’s major gains in slowing Amazon deforestation.
District Energy Systems can reduce carbon, save money - but only if well-regulated
Centralized heating systems known as District Energy (DE) Systems generate heat at a central plant and then pipe it underground, providing heat and hot water for a cluster of buildings or even an entire community. DE has exceptional potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and contribute to a lower carbon economy.
But unless they’re properly designed and regulated, DE systems risk high costs and overestimated greenhouse gas reductions.
Billboard Wars, Chapter 2 (or Is It 3?)
Pfizer is not the only corporation Forecast the Facts had hoped to plaster across the freeway. It also planned to call out Microsoft and Comcast for donations to Heartland.
“Our goal was to highlight Pfizer and other corporations’ support of the Heartland Institute,” Mr. Johnson said. “The question to ask is whether these corporations are based on a foundation of science or on a foundation of profit.”
Canada pledges oil and gas pollution rules by 2013 at climate conference
Facing questions about its upcoming withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol and "gaps" in its existing policies, Canada told international climate change talks in Germany Thursday that it planned to crack down on oil and gas pollution through draft regulations by next year.
Critical time as Qatar hosts talks
The naming of Qatar's former oil minister to the presidency of this year's climate change talks reflects the conflicting priorities of Gulf states.
Parts of Japan see record-high CO2 levels
The average monthly concentration of carbon dioxide has topped 400 parts per million in Ofunato, Iwate Prefecture, the first time this level has been reached in Japan, raising alarm about greenhouse gases that can cause global warming.
Temperatures rise across the ditch
The last 60 years have been the hottest in Australasia for a millennium, most likely thanks to human-caused climate change, a new report says.
Scientists from the University of Melbourne used 27 natural climate records, including tree rings, corals and ice cores to create the first large-scale temperature reconstruction for the region over the past 1000 years.
Summer forecast sparks concern over fires, water shortages
As the nation swelters through its warmest year on record, a new forecast for a broiling summer is raising concern about wildfires and water shortages, especially across parts of the western and southern USA.
UK climate policy can curb energy price shocks-report
LONDON (Reuters) - Britain's climate policies can help shield the economy from oil and gas price shocks triggered by external factors such as the Arab Spring, an analysis commissioned by the government showed on Friday.
Q. and A.: How to Save Bangladesh?
Bangladesh is a prime example of a vulnerable developing nation that faces formidable challenges in all these areas, and it will be directly affected by the decisions that are made — or not made — at the conference. Firm commitments have often been elusive on the international level.
We asked Thomas Rath, the country program manager for the United Nations International Fund for Agricultural Development project in Bangladesh, about the development obstacles the country faces, some of which are linked to climate change and environmental degradation.
TheOilDrum.com Archive 2005-2011
During the past seven years, TheOilDrum.com has hosted analysis and discussion surrounding the possibility and implications of a near term peak in global oil production and importance of energy to society in general. Out of the ~8,500 articles posted here (all searchable by keyword in upper left), the list below comprises what each author considered some of their most relevant content.
The list is in alphabetical order, by last name of Oil Drum contributor. Click on the author's name to go to their list of selected articles. At the end of each section, a link is given to the complete list of all articles by that author.
List of Authors Gail the Actuary Ugo Bardi Art Berman Jason Bradford Joules Burn François Cellier David Clarke Samuel Foucher Nicole Foss Big Gav Prof. Goose Nate Hagens Phil Hart Rembrandt Koppelaar Rune Likvern Euan Mearns David Murphy Heading Out Jérôme à Paris Engineer-Poet Robert Rapier Luis de Sousa Stuart Staniford Jeff Vail Chris Vernon List of Articles Gail the ActuaryOil Limits, Recession, and Bumping Up Against the Growth Ceiling.
Write up of an introductory presentation, explaining our how limited oil supply is causing recession and lower economic growth.
Are We Reaching Limits to Growth?
Looks at our current financial and other problems, in relationship to Limits to Growth (from the 1972 book by that name).
IEO 2011: A Misleadingly Optimistic Energy Forecast by the EIA
Explains why the latest official forecast of the US Energy Information Administration appears optimistic.
Kidding Ourselves About Middle East/North Africa Oil Production.
Why claims about future high oil production from Middle East/North Africa are likely overstated.
The Link Between Peak Oil and Peak Debt - Part 1
Why limited oil supply is likely to be associated with declining debt availability.
What's Behind Egypt's Problems?
Explains the connection between declining oil exports and Egypt's "Arab Spring."
Is It Really Possible to Decouple Energy Growth from GDP Growth?
Explores why growth in energy efficiency seems to have stopped after 2000. Also see Thoughts on Why Energy Use and CO2 Emissions are Rising as Fast as GDP
The US Electric Grid: Will it be Our Undoing? – Revisited
Why the US electrical transmission system has so many challenges, and the many obstacles to improving it.
Social Security and Medicare Funding Issues: Even Worse when One Considers Resource Constraint
Why Social Security and Medicare funding issues are even worse, when Peak Oil is considered.
What Can We Learn from Gift Economies?
Campfire post relating to a system where individuals gain status not by what they have, but by what they give away.
There is plenty of oil but . . .
There is a huge amount of oil that theoretically can be extracted, but the question is whether the cost will be cheap enough for us to be able to afford to extract it. If the oil is too expensive to extract, the shortage of oil seems to cause a recession, similar to what we are having now.
Scientific American's Path to Sustainability: Let's Think about the Details
Scientific American presents "A Path to Sustainable Energy by 2030" in its November 2010 issue. I explain why it wouldn't work.
Some Cautionary Thoughts about Wind
Offers ten reasons why wind is not as an attractive an option as many think it is.
Delusions of Finance: Where We are Headed
Explanation of why my financial forecasts at the beginning of 2008 turned out to be correct.
Peak Oil and the Financial Markets: A Forecast for 2008
A financial forecast for 2008 that in retrospect has proven accurate.
Our World Is Finite: Is This a Problem?
Post written before I became an Oil Drum staff member that lays out may of the major issues that I continue to write about.
Read more posts by Gail the Actuary. (Real name, Gail Tverberg)
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"Peak Civilization": The Fall of the Roman Empire
A post attempting to apply system dynamics to the fall of the Roman Empire which - as far as I know - has not been done, so far.
Cassandra's curse: how "The Limits to Growth" was demonized
With its scenarios of civilization collapse, the book shocked the world perhaps more than Cassandra had shocked her fellow Trojan citizens when she had predicted the fall of their city to the Achaeans. Just as Cassandra was not believed, so it was for the "Limits to Growth" which, today, is still widely seen as a thoroughly flawed study, wrong all along.
The Universal Mining Machine
Why can’t we build a universal mining machine here, on Earth, and stop worrying about running out of mineral resources?
Mind-sized Hubbert
What is it, exactly, that causes production peaks for oil and for other non renewable resources?
The dark side of coal - some historical insights on energy and the economy
In this post, I start to tell the story of coal in Italy and how the fortunes of the country went in parallel with those of coal well until mid 20th century.
The church, the peak, and my old watch
A post about leaving something that lasts a long time and that doesn't need precious resources that can't be replaced.
The post-peak car
A fantastic account of how a 1970s Fiat 500 has been retrofitted with batteries and an electric motor to create the Post Peak Car.
How to Drive your Elephant - Dealing with Complex Problems
How elephant driving may be seen as as a metaphor for controlling complex systems.
Peak Minerals
A post taken from a report co-authored with Marco Pagani which examines the world production of 57 minerals reported in the database of the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and makes the case for the peak and decline of many of these minerals in the near future.
Peak Caviar
"Peak Caviar" is another confirmation of how common the "Hubbert" behavior is. It doesn't matter if a resource is theoretically renewable, as sturgeons and whales are. If sturgeons or whales are killed much faster than they can reproduce, then they behave as a non renewable resource; just as crude oil.
Read more posts by Ugo Bardi
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Arthur Berman talks about Shale Gas
McMoRan Davy Jones Gas Discovery
Co-written with Joshua H. Rosenfeld, this post looks at a significant discovery in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico by the McMoRan Exploration Company that may contain 2-6 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of natural gas reserves.
Shale Gas—Abundance or Mirage? Why The Marcellus Shale Will Disappoint Expectations
Shale gas plays in the United States are commercial failures and shareholders in public exploration and production (E&P) companies are the losers. This conclusion falls out of a detailed evaluation of shale-dominated company financial statements and individual well decline curve analyses.
BP Macondo Blowout - Static Top Kill vs. Bottom Kill: Weighing the Risks
A post co-written with William Semple.
Is the Drilling Moratorium Long Enough? No, Not Really
The key issues around the drilling moratorium as I see them.
What caused the Deepwater Horizon disaster?
The blowout and oil spill on the Deepwater Horizon in the Gulf of Mexico was caused by a flawed well plan that did not include enough cement between the 7-inch production casing and the 9 7/8-inch protection casing. The presumed blowout preventer (BOP) failure is an important but secondary issue.
ExxonMobil’s Acquisition of XTO Energy: The Fallacy of the Manufacturing Model in Shale Plays
Most analysts believe that the ExxonMobil acquisition of XTO Energy (XTO) represents a dramatic shift in strategy by the premier exploration and production (E&P) company, and a validation of shale plays. It is neither. The move represents a considered and deliberate choice that acknowledges diminished opportunities for the oil giant to add and replace reserves.
Read more posts by Arthur Berman
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The Thermodynamics of Local Foods
I wrote this in response to a slew of media attention that argued against local foods. However, based on thermodynamics, only a predominantly local food system will be sustainable in the long run.
Ecological Economics and the Food System
This is a summary of energy use in the U.S. food system placed in the context of ecological economics. Our current food system is structured inappropriately for long-term viability, and the kinds of shifts required to make it more enduring are discussed.
Save it for the Combine
Few people understand how critical certain technologies are to their survival and way of life. The combine allows one person to harvest the food for hundreds, saving enormous labor while using liquid fuels. I argue that any rationing of liquid fuels or use of biofuels be prioritized for the combine.
The Food System and Public Policy
Many in the U.S. like to think we live in a free market economy. But when it comes to development of the food system public policy explains much of what we see.
The Food System and Resilience
Resilience is a concept from ecology that can be applied to any complex system. When the current food system is examined using a resilience framework it is found to be very fragile. The essay concludes by outlining the possible emergence of more resilient food systems given new economic and energetic realities.
Energy Descent and Agricultural Population
This article includes a graph that combines data on energy use and percent rural population, showing that more energy in a society lowers the proportion engaged in farming. Given the shape of this relationship, can we make some educated speculations about shifting labor demographics in highly industrialized nations during energy descent?
Scenario 2020: The Future of Food in Mendocino County
I believe there’s the possibility of a near-term collapse of complex societies given a financial shock, perhaps precipitated or exacerbated by political and energy crises. This photo essay conveys this potential from an imagined future, with an emphasis on the food system.
I have an interest in economics, in the broad sense, of how and why people and societies chose to invest and consume, and what this means for resources and the environment. The following three essays share a common theme: resources are only constrained in a world with exponentially growing demand for more stuff. Reducing demand is more important than increasing supply, and ultimately we have no choice. However, conscientious curtailment comes up against both engrained pyscho-social reward systems, which are largely explored in the first two essays, and the structure of our financial system, which is touched upon in the third.
Finding Healthy Addictions
Dopamine Returned on Energy Invested (DREI)?
Advice to Pres. Obama( #6): Beware the Hungry Ghosts
Read more posts by Jason Bradford
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Khurais Me A River
An early look at the development of the Khurais oilfield in Saudi Arabia using satellite imagery, reviewing past efforts to produce from the field.
Ghawar Numerology: Drilling in Uthmaniyah
An animated history of the drilling sequence in one part of the Ghawar oil field in Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Arabia's Ghawar Isn't Sinking (but has apparently moved)
A critical look at satellite imagery analysis which reached some faulty conclusions regarding the behavior of the Ghawar field upon depletion.
Abqaiq and Eat It Too
A look at recent developments in the giant Abqaiq field in Saudi Arabia using satellite imagery combined with published reports.
Local Scientist Splits Water, Saves World, Gets On TV
A skeptical look at recent claims of a breakthrough in water electrolysis to produce hydrogen.
Five Easy Leases: Ghawar's Discovery Wells
An in-depth look at the first wells drilled in the five operational areas for the Ghawar field, including their current status.
Who Killed the Electric Gas Tank?
A look at claims of a breakthrough in ultracapacitors for energy storage in electric vehicles.
Saudi Aramco Loses Count, Drills Too Many Wells In Ghawar
An satellite imagery analysis of Saudi drilling activity in the southern-most part of the Ghawar field, showing that more has been going on than publicly revealed.
Lessons Left Unlearnt From 2003 Gulf of Mexico Near-Spill
A look in the US Materials Management Service datafiles revealing a number of accidents and near misses which preceded the massive BP spill in the Gulf of Mexico.
Crude Confessions: Massive Saudi Oil Spill in 1993?
A look at how Saudi oil is transported out of the country in the context of claims of a secret oil spill.
Read more posts by Joules Burn
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Ecological Footprint, Energy Consumption, and the Looming Collapse
This article explores dynamic relations governing population growth, resource depletion, and world economics by means of a few simple modeling and simulation exercises.
Is the 2000 Watt Society Sustainable in Switzerland?
In this presentation, we discuss whether the 2000 Watt Society is at all sustainable, and if so, what it will take to keep energy supply at that level after the end of ample and cheap fossil fuels.
The Slavery of Oil
A review of a proposed methodology that would allow me to quantify the price level of crude oil at which our economies will stall.
Read more posts by François Cellier
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The Failure of Networked Systems: The Repercussions of Systematic Risk Revisited
Cascading collapse and why the corporate drive towards increasing efficiencies could be driving our interacting networked systems towards this mode of collapse.
The Networking of Resource Production: Do the Networks Give us Warnings when They are About to Fail?
The flaw in the techno-cornucopian dream: Modeling why and how a networked resource-extraction system fails.
Read more posts by David Clarke
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Analysis of Decline Rates
This post offers a kind of reverse engineering of what numbers could be behind the long and detailed IEA decline analysis in their last report (2008 IEA WEO). A tentative decline structure for the post-peak Super-Giant and Giants oilfields is offered as well as a possible scenario for future production.
Peak Demand or Peak Consumption? A Look at OECD Oil Demand
In this post I show that the key driver behind the oil price increase since 2002 has been excess demand combined with unresponsive supply.
Peak Oil Update - July 2009: Production Forecasts and EIA Oil Production Numbers
An update on the latest production numbers from the EIA along with graphs/charts of different oil production forecasts.
Estimating the World Production Decline Rates from the Megaproject Forecasts
Having a good estimate of the decline rate of the resource base (most estimates are ranging between 2 and 6%/year) is fundamental for the precision of supply forecasts derived from megaproject database.
Saudi Arabia: An Attempt to Link Oil Discoveries, Proven Reserves and Production Data
This article is an attempt to apply the Hybrid Shock Model (HSM) on Saudi Arabia's oil production. In a nutshell, the HSM is trying to model the observed production profile from the discovery curve by simulating the different phases involved in the development of oilfields (initial discovery, planning, build, maturity).
Why We (Really) May Have Entered an Oil Production Plateau
We know that some countries (around 56) have seen their production peaked (also called type III depletion). The remaining group consists of 17 countries that have the potential to grow or maintain their current production (the type II group). I propose to apply the HL technique only on the total production from the the type III group and try to assess the future production decline coming from that group.
An Update on Mexico's Oil Production--The Rapid Collapse of Cantarell by the Numbers
Last year, I expressed my concerns about the eventual impact of a rapid collapse of Cantarell on Mexico's oil production. The last production numbers from PEMEX seems to confirm the rapid decline of Cantarell as well as the inability of the Mexican to rapidly bring new production online.
The Loglet Analysis
Most peakoilers on this site have been introduced to the logistic curve through the famous prediction of King Hubbert on the Lower-48 production. Fewer maybe knows that curve fitting techniques have been extensively applied by people that we may qualify as cornucopians. Ironically, the logistic curve is also used as a prediction tool for market share and technology substitution.
A Different Way to Perform the Hubbert Linearization
A quick post about a different manipulation of the logistic differential equation. By using the first derivative, we get a new way to perform the Hubbert linearization. Some results are given on Norway and the US oil production.
Norway and the Parabolic Fractal Law
Norway can be considered as the poster child of the Hubbert curve modeling approach with a production profile that is remarkably close to the logistic curve.
Read more posts by Samuel Foucher
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Entropy and Empire This article is a discussion of the rise and fall of empire (in thermodynamic terms) and the process of imperial succession.
The Resurgence of Risk Resurgence of Risk is a description of the developing credit crunch from its inception - an explanation of how we arrived at this financial crisis and where we are headed.
Smart Metering and Smarter Metering Electricity metering is a significant means of addressing excess demand, but the high-tech metering solutions being proposed miss many opportunities because they pay no attention to psychological drivers.
A MacKenzie Valley Pipedream? This piece assesses the prospects for the construction of a MacKenzie Valley pipeline through the Canadian north.
Anaerobic Digestion in Ontario - A Regulatory Obstacle Course Renewable energy technologies wishing to connect to the grid face significant regulatory obstacles that add so much to project costs that project viability is threatened.
Read more posts by Nicole Foss
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Concentrating On The Important Things - Solar Thermal Power
While we spend a lot of time talking about traditional energy sources based on depleting resources that are extracted from the ground, I think its important to remember that the fastest growing sources of energy are solar and wind, and that these will never run out.
Tapping The Source: The Power Of The Oceans
A post examining the use of artificial islands to collect wind, wave, ocean current and solar power in the tropics, along with a more unusual energy source - harnessing the difference in water temperatures between the warm surface and the cold depths using a technique called OTEC (Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion).
Geothermal Energy: Geothermia
Crossposted from my blog Peak Energy as the subject of geothermal power has cropped up in the comments a few times lately.
Floating Offshore Wind Power
An update on a post I did last year on the potential for floating offshore wind power, which looked at a number of different prototypes at various stages of development.
The Limits To Scenario Planning
A review of some common misconceptions about the Limits to Growth book.
Iraq's Oil: The Greatest Prize Of All
In this post I'll outline why I believe that Iraq probably has the world's largest oil reserves - or, as Daniel Yergin once said of the middle east, it is "the greatest single prize in all history".
Natural Gas In Australia - How Long Will It Last?
In this post I have a look at how much gas Australia has and how long it will last under a variety of scenarios.
Coal Seam Gas In Australia
In this post I look at recent events in the gas industry and what they mean for Australian gas production in future.
The Hydrogen Economy and Peak Platinum
A comprehensive review of the issues involved in the "hydrogen economy".
Hubbert: King Of The Technocrats
In this post I explore the Technocracy movement and Hubbert's role in it.
Locabucks: Are local currencies a way to escape the liquidity trap?
I look at the concept of local currencies (or "locabucks" as I'm now dubbing them), an idea which has its roots in the Great Depression as a mechanism for escaping the liquidity trap - and thus might be relevant again in the not-too distant future if present trends continue.
Terra Preta: Biochar and the MEGO Effect
In this post I have a look at modern day techniques to produce terra preta (often called biochar or agrichar) which have the potential to increase soil fertility, generate energy and sequester carbon all at the same time.
Buckminster Fuller's Critical Path
A review of Buckminster Fuller's last work, Critical Path.
Is It Time For a 4 Day Working Week?
In this post I look at various proposals to reduce the amount of time we spend at work, as a way of addressing energy, environmental and other issues facing us.
Peak Oil And The Tea Party Movement
In this post I have a look at the boost this (peak oil) is likely to give to populist politics and some of the possibilities for addressing this.
Read more posts by Big Gav
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A Pretty Stunning Graph of World Cement Production (and China is Certainly Using It)
This post updates Stuart's post about this two years ago (and yes, it's still a graph that will blow you away!) with two more years of USGS cement data, 2006 and 2007.
From the Editor's Desk: Peak Oil, Heretical Thought, Complexity, and the Future of The Oil Drum
Lately, I have been thinking a lot about the direction of The Oil Drum. Much of my thinking on this set of ideas has been brought about by some soul-searching, trying to understand the problems we face as a community, and then figuring out how to "positively push the future."
Peak Oil, Persuasion, and the World Meme
What insights can we claim from psychology to get those we care about, and even those we don't, to dig deeper to get to an understanding of the pillars of the problems we face, instead of trying to buy aluminum siding for a house slowly falling in on itself?
Will Canada Fuel Fortress America?
Will Canada complacently allow the US to pillage her resources as energy supplies become more scarce?
Why the US Political System Is Unable to React to Peak Oil: Institutions
I thought I would bring some pieces of the political puzzle together into a post on why I believe the US, at least at the federal level, will be overly slow to react to the problems of peak oil in both the short and long term.
Was That Really Five Years?
A summary and some thoughts about the fifth year of the Oil Drum's existence.
The Oil Drum Celebrates Its First Year Today
Read more posts by Prof. Goose (Real name, Kyle Saunders)
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The Psychological and Evolutionary Roots of Resource Consumption A (longish) exploration of how our evolved neural wetware predisposes us to compete for status and also allows us to be hijacked by novelty items/activities, many of which use alot of energy.
A Net Energy Parable: Why is ERoEI Important? A story about how energy return on investment impacts an imaginary society of Sasquatches - highlighting the importance of biohpysical metrics for a civilization.
Peak Oil: A View from Planet Talos An alien perspective on the resource depletion/human nature intersection.
Living for the Moment While Devaluing the Future An examination of why we have evolved mechanisms to steeply favor the present over the future and why this is relevant to questions of resource depletion and environmental problems.
Peak Oil - Whom to Believe CERAiously-Part 1 Highlights of the main differences between the energy cornucopians and those predicting a near term peak in oil production.
Peak Oil - Why Smart Folks Disagree Part 2 More detail on the above post on supply side differences between energy optimists and realists.
Peak Oil - Believe it or Not - Part 3 An overview of human cognitive biases that contribute to disagreement on resource depletion/climate change.
Can We Be Happy Using Less Energy? Uhh Yes! An look at decreasing returns to more consumtion.
Old Sunlight vs Ancient Sunlight - An Analysis of Home Heating and Wood Measuring the scale of US standing forest relative to US fossil fuel use for heat.
".......Dammit - We Wasted a Day of Sunlight"
Peak Oil, IHS Data and The Broken Clock
Peak Oil and Reflexivity and Peak Oil Soros theory of reflexivity, in light of oil depletion.
Hedge Funds, Hurricanes and Energy Markets An overview of volatility and the small size of energy markets relative to financial capital.
The 2008 IEA WEO Review (#1 in a Series) The first in a series examining the claims of the IEA annual energy report.
Advice to Obama (#2) Yes We Can But Will We? A letter to the new President, outlining biophysical (supply) and evolutionary (demand) type thinking.
Campfire
What Do We Tell Our Children A letter I wrote to an 8 year old boy who asked about oil running out.
I Don't Know A short piece looking at why we are so confident, even when we know very little.
I Dream of GINI - Wealth Inequality During Resource Depletion
Peak Oil, Peak Credit and Investments - So What the Hell Does One Do? An initial pass at rewriting the Capital Asset Pricing Model assumptions
Whither The Oil Drum? An introspection on the purpose of sites like this, when the meme of peak oil has been generally accepted.
Enter the Elephant A look at why facts matter very little in changing peoples behavior.
2010: The Year for Making ContactNew Years resolutions for myself, in light of current conditions.
Dear Candidate-What Will You Do if Growth is Over?
Read more posts by Nate Hagens
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Meet Trev: A two-seater renewable energy vehicle
I believe there is instead a bright future for a spectrum of 'micro' electric vehicles, from battery powered bicycles up to compact size cars, including this new concept car named Trev (Two-seater Renewable Energy Vehicle).
International Energy Agency calls 'Peak' on OECD Oil Demand
In World Energy Outlook 2009, the International Energy Agency seems to have dropped a bombshell that has been quietly (and politely) ignored.
The Economics of Volatile Oil Prices
Considering the fundamental nature of oil supply and demand provides a coherent explanation not just for the rapid rise in oil prices, but also the dramatic fall.
The 2008 IEA WEO - Oil Reserves and Resources
Despite significant changes, the 2008 IEA report still relies on inflated estimates of reserves from OPEC countries, overplays the contribution of reserves growth due to technology and predicts the reversal of a decades long trend of declining oil discoveries.
Oil, House Prices, Credit? Three parts of the same story
The long forgotten 'oil crisis' of just a few months ago has been replaced by a full blown 'credit crisis' - related events that represent the unravelling of half a century of unsustainable trends in oil consumption and debt.
High-Tech Hitchhiking
Could a hitchhiking scheme for the iPhone era work in practice and change attitudes to hitching a ride?
How Technology Increases Oil Production
How can you double something and still have ten times less than you started with? The answer to this question will help us reassess claims that advances in oil field technology will postpone the peak in global oil production.
Oil Reserves: Where Ghawar goes, the rest of OPEC follows
In May 2007, the work of Stuart Staniford and Euan Mearns culminated in a new and unprecedented assessment of oil reserves in Ghawar, the world's largest oil field. This article combines their assessment with additional information sources, to produce a revised estimate of reserves in Saudi Arabia and the other OPEC countries.
Read more posts by Phil Hart
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Carbon Capture and Storage: Economic Costs Revisited
The effects on coal power plant economics of CO2 emissions capture.
Carbon Capture and Storage: Energy Costs Revisited
The effects on coal power plant economics of CO2 emissions capture.
A primer on reserve growth part 1
What is reserve growth and why it is so difficult to measure?
A primer on reserve growth part 2
A summary of various reserve growth studies.
A primer on reserve growth part 3
A discussion on the reserve growth figures in the USGS World Petroleum Assessment 2000.
Are Reserves of the Largest US Coal Field Overstated by 50%?
A summary of the USGS 2009 reserve assessment of the largest U.S. coal field, Gilette in Wyoming.
Read more posts by Rembrandt Koppelaar
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Europe and Natural Gas - Are Tough Choices Ahead?
In this post, I present some graphs showing European historical natural gas consumption and supply, along with my estimates of future consumption and supply.
Trends in World Oil Supply/Consumption and Net Exports/Imports
In this post I briefly present the results from my analysis of absolute and relative trends in world oil (all liquids) supply, consumption, net exports and net imports between 1980 and 2009.
Has OECD oil consumption peaked?
I examine similarities and differences in oil consumption patterns of OECD and Non-OECD countries and offer my view as to what the future may hold.
IEA WEO 2008 - NGLs to the Rescue?
In this post, I will document that there is good reason to believe that the IEA WEO 2008 projections in the reference scenario overshoots the likely world production of NGLs by as much as 35 - 50 % by 2030.
Has Fossil Fuel Consumption Within EU Peaked?
As this post will show the likelihood that the EU’s fossil fuel consumption has peaked, back in 1979, is now very real. It will also compare the degree of net fossil fuel self-sufficiency between the EU and the USA as of 2007.
Why UK Natural Gas Prices Will Move North of 100p/Therm This Winter
This post presents the development of the energy mix for the UK, and how the UK in less than a decade went from being a substantial energy exporter to a substantial net energy importer.
Read more posts by Rune Likvern
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Lies, Damned Lies and Government Oil Production Forecasts?
Back in 2005 the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD) forecast 2.84 mbpd oil production in Norway during 2009. I pointed out their forecast was rather optimistic. 2.3 mbpd was what actually came to pass. The NPD were 23% too high.
The architecture of UK offshore oil production in relation to future production models
This post, written in November 2006 provided a forecast for UK oil production employing bottom up and top down methodology. My forecast for UK oil production in 2009 was 1.53 mbpd. 1.45 mbpd was what actually came to pass. I was 6% too high.
Flesh on the bones of Mexican oil production
With Cantarell in free fall, this post tried to take a more holistic view of Mexican oil production, pointing out that nitrogen once destined for Cantarell would now be diverted and injected into neighboring Ku-Maloob-Zaap complex.
Saudi production laid bare
This post was written to counter Stuart Staniford who claimed "Oil production peaked in Saudi Arabia in 2005. Recent sharp declines in production are involuntary and Saudi Arabia has switched from swing producer to supply constrained producer."
GHAWAR: an estimate of remaining oil reserves and production decline (Part 1 - background and methodology)
GHAWAR: an estimate of remaining oil reserves and production decline (Part 2 - results)
Ghawar reserves update and revisions (1)
Estimates of the remaining reserves and future production in Ghawar, the worlds largest oil field, based on data gleaned from the internet by a host of eager bloggers.
Crisis, what energy crisis?
An overview of the best posts from the 12 months preceding July 2007.
UK Energy Security
A look at possible impacts of UK oil and gas production decline together with a range of appropriate energy policy responses.
Saudi Arabia - production forecasts and reserves estimates
An oil production forecast for Saudi Arabia using both bottom up and top down (Hubbert linearisation) techniques. Peak was forecast to be 2011.
The European Gas Market
A comprehensive look at where Europe gets its natural gas from (34 charts and maps) including forecasts that incorporate peak Norwegian gas production and decline of the supergiant gas field at Groningen in Holland.
Daddy, will the lights be on at Christmas?
A follow up to the European Gas market incorporating a forecast for Norwegian gas production produced by Rune Likvern.
Why oil costs over $120 per barrel
An examination of some of the fundamental causes of the run in oil prices that took place in 2008.
Why oil costs over $130 per barrel: the decline of North Sea Oil
An overview of North Sea oil production decline and its role in the oil price run of 2008.
A State of Emergency
An examination of the plunge in UK oil and gas production and its impact on the UK economy ahead of the 2008 crash.
The Global Energy Crisis and its Role in the Pending Collapse of the Global Economy
The slides I presented at a talk to the Royal Society of Chemists in Aberdeen, November 2008.
The energy efficiency of energy procurement systems
An overview of the energy return on a number of energy procurement systems together with a look at contradictory policies being pursued by OECD governments.
The energy efficiency of cars
A simple look at the energy efficiency of various vehicle propulsion systems including all electric, internal combustion, fuel cells and bio fuel.
The financial return on energy invested
An experimental examination of links between energy production, consumption, prices and GDP.
The Chinese Coal Monster
An examination of the phenomenal growth in Chinese coal production and consumption. How long can this go on?
Read more posts by Euan Mearns
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EROI, Insidious Feedbacks, and the End of Economic Growth
In this post I attempt to answer the following question: Is a return to long term economic growth possible?
The True Value of Energy is the Net Energy
"The true value of energy to society is the net energy, which is that after the energy costs of getting and concentrating that energy are subtracted.” - H.T. Odum (1973)
Energy Transitions and the Next Paradigmatic Image of the World
The most important question is “what is the next paradigmatic image of the world?”
The Net Hubbert Curve, what does it mean?
Cutler Cleveland of Boston University has reported that the EROI of oil and gas extraction in the U.S. has decreased from 100:1 in the 1930’s to 30:1 in the 1970’s to roughly 11:1 as of 2000. What does this mean?
Further Evidence of the Influence of Energy on the US economy
Gail, Jeff Rubin, and now James Hamilton of the University of California – San Diego have produced literature correlating either this financial collapse or recessions more generally with peak oil and oil prices. The take-away message of their work is that oil prices played a fundamental role in causing the current recession and many previous recessions.
The Energy Return on Investment Threshold Due to the asymptotic nature of the curve at high EROIs, extraction/conversion processes with EROIs below 8 result in vastly different flows of net energy than those with higher EROIs.
Read more posts by David Murphy
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Heading Out has written a long series of articles under the title of Tech Talks, running on Sundays. These recently deal with oil and gas resource availability in various parts of the world. Earlier, the articles dealt with techniques for extraction of oil and gas. After the Deepwater Horizon blow out, he wrote a series of articles dealing with the approaches to sealing the well.
Link to a listing of posts by Heading Out. (Real name, Dave Summers)
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Ukraine vs Russia: Tales of pipelines and dependence
I wrote the text below in late December 2005, i.e. just before the Russian-Ukrainian gas conflict, which had been simmering for a few weeks, blew open into the consciousness of the West.
New Iraqi oil law: some facts on PSAs
A post refuting some assertions about the new Iraqi oil law, which will allow foreign companies to invest in the oil sector via PSAs (production sharing agreements).
A review of the underlying fundamentals of nuclear energy
A review of the pros and cons of the nuclear industry.
How To Get A Pipeline Built
A primer on why and how pipelines get built - which essentially means how they get financed.
Countdown to $200 oil meets Anglo Disease
Oil has played a fascinating side role in my Anglo Disease series, allowing the debt bubble to go on for much longer than expected. But now, instead, it is accelerating the crash. Let me take you through the whole cycle.
Fierce pride - yes it works! (or, first ever bank-financed offshore wind farm inaugurated!)
A post about the windfarm which I helped finance two years ago which is now up and running.
Countdown to $200 oil: $140 oil and speculation
There are A LOT of good reasons why oil prices are going up. Let me show you just a few.
The cost of wind, the price of wind, the value of wind
In this post I try to clear some of the confusion that surrounds the economics of wind power, as this is an issue that is often used by the opponents of wind to dismiss it.
Read more posts by Jérôme à Paris
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Sustainability, Energy Independence and Agricultural Policy.
If we are going to use biofuels, we need to re-think everything involved with them; the results may not look like anything we've ever seen.
One engineer's advice for energy policy.
An open letter to Obama on the path the country should take.
H2CAR: Another blind alley
We can make enough biofuel to replace oil, but at a price we cannot pay; this is NOT a solution.
The Cogeneration Stopgap
Generating electricity along with heat can stretch fuel supplies and bridge to the future.
Energetics of cultivation: draft animals vs. combustion engines and the Haber process
Tractors are more efficient than horses, and we don't have to breed or train them.
Analysis of the Hon. John Dingell's carbon-tax proposal
Talking back to a Washington insider who kept Detroit in the gas-guzzler business, who I voted against when my city became part of his district, yet who is making some sense.
EPA economy ratings vs. the GM Volt: A square peg in a round hole
Ruminations on why MPG loses its relevance in a world of watt-hours per mile.
Photovoltaics: From Waste to Energy-maker
How the dumps of phosphate mining can yield the material to power much of the world.
Weathering the storm: making it through a natural-gas crisis.
Lifestyle changes which may slash fuel demand by changing habits.
Read more posts by Engineer-Poet
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We Won't Stop Global Warming
I lay out the case that there isn’t really much we will do to stop the accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere.
Does the Hubbert Linearization Ever Work?
Debunking the use of the Hubbert Linearization as a tool for the prediction of peak oil.
Peak Oil Interview: Misconceptions, Replacing Oil, and False Solutions
An interview I did at that 2010 Global Footprint Network conference that discusses peak oil.
What If Gas Cost $100 a Gallon?
A thought experiment to see what people might really do in cases of extreme gasoline constraints.
A Critical Examination of Matt Simmons’ Claims on the Deepwater Spill
Debunking hyperbolic comments related to the deepwater spill.
The Switch to Winter Gasoline and a Primer on Gasoline Blends
Every year in late summer, you will start hearing references in the media about the conversion to winter gasoline. So what does this mean, and why does it make gasoline less expensive?
The Price of Energy
Just looking at the cost per BTU of many different energy sources. Sparking some interesting discussion.
The Case for Higher Gas Taxes (and Lower Income Taxes)
I make my case for why it would make sense to shift taxes from income to consumption of fossil fuels.
Ethanol Blend E85 Case Study: Iowa
Examines the question of why Iowa should use their own ethanol instead of exporting it.
The Next Five Years: Peak Lite and the Current Oil Picture
Seeking to explain why I think peak oil consequences would start to happen before peak oil.
Refining 201: The Assay Essay
Explaining what products are produced from crude oil, and how that relates to the assay of the crude.
Why Not Nuclear Power?
Exploring the case for expanded nuclear power.
The Future is Solar
Why I think solar power has to play a more important role in the future.
Cellulosic Ethanol vs. Biomass Gasification
Just explaining the difference in the two technologies that have seen the borderlines between them blurred.
German Military Study Warns of Potential Energy Crisis
A translation of major points from the Bundeswehr report.
Read more posts by Robert Rapier
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World Oil Exports: A Comprehensive Projection
This article is a first simplistic (but comprehensive) assessment of World Oil Exports, here defined as the total amount of liquid hydrocarbons that are surpluses in producing countries.
World Oil Exports [00] Introduction
A 2008 update on the original 2006 assessment.
World Oil Exports [01] Angola
The next post in the series focussing specifically on Angola's oil reserves.
World Oil Exports [02] Libya
Same as above except Libya this time.
A New Energy Policy for Europe
Wednesday the European Commission released a series of Communications proposing a new revolutionary Energy Policy attempting to address EU’s energy challenges for the XXI century. This is a set of first comments to such proposals.
Dialoguing with Dr. Peter Jackson of CERA: Is the Future of Oil Resources Secure?
Some reflections follow regarding Dr. Jackson’s arguments and understanding of the Hubbert’s Peak.
From sweet on the table to fuel in the tank: the millenary history of Sugar Cane
A dive into the fascinating history of a plant that shaped the World.
Marchetti's Curves
This is a brief account of the Energy Substitution Model developed by Cesare Marchetti in the 1970s at IIASA.
A few more thoughts on Saudi and HL
There has been some discussion about how to apply the Hubbert Linearization (HL) to Saudi historical production in recent weeks at TOD. Trying not to fall into redundancy, let me have some loose thoughts on these models.
Olduvai revisited 2008
This work tries to assess how the decline of Conventional Fossil Fuels may unfold and how can Mankind avoid the Road that may take us back to the Olduvai Gorge.
IEA WEO 2008 - Fossil Fuel Ultimates and CO2 Emissions Scenarios
An assessment of the WEO climate change statistics, co-authored with Euan Mearns.
Energy Policy: SER-2
This log entry is the first of a series that will try to build a critical but constructive review of this crucial element of future Energy Policy in Europe.
SER-2 [02] Memo on the Security and Solidarity Action Plan
In the second installment of this series analysing the Second Strategic Energy Review (SER-2) by the European Commission, the focus is on to the Memo entitled “EU Energy Security and Solidarity Action Plan”.
SER-2 [03] Communication of the Security and Solidarity Action Plan
This post tries to highlight important aspects that aren't referenced in the Memo and presents the implementation steps proposed by the Commission to put the Plan into practice.
Planning for Europe's Energy Future: My Submission to the Commission's 2010 Consultation on Energy
This document is a response to the Energy Consultation launched by the European Commission in the first half of 2010. This consultation is part of a process that shall take the Commission to a new Energy Policy Programme a few years from now.
Interview with Jean Laherrère
Some comments on the general Fossil Fuels depletion picture and our future beyond them.
Read more posts by Luis de Sousa
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4%, 11%, Who the Hell Cares? A very early piece pointing out that the post-peak decline rate is really the critical variable in assessing the seriousness of peak oil - much more important than the date or height of peak, or the degree of warning of peak. This piece still seems pretty good to me.
Hubbert Theory says Peak is Slow Squeeze. The first piece I wrote looking at the evidence that the post peak decline rate will probably be slow, rather than rapid.
The Auto Efficiency Wedge A piece looking at the fact that at slow decline rates, it's reasonably forseeable that peak oil can be handled by ongoing efficiency improvements (not painlessly, but without complete disaster)
Depletion Levels in Ghawar A major forensic analysis of the state of oil depletion in the Ghawar field of Saudi Arabia, suggesting that Saudi official oil reserve figures are over-optimistic.
US Peak Oil Adaptation: Prognosis in a Credit Crunch Rather prescient piece from 2007 discussing the possibility that the credit crunch could collapse oil prices and slow adaptation to peak oil. This turned out to be pretty much what happened.
Fermenting the Food Supply An argument against continued growth in biofuel consumption as an alternative to oil, on the grounds that the implications for food prices are likely to be very problematic.
The Fallacy of Reversibility This piece argued that there is no evidence for the idea that peak oil will lead to a revival of local non-industrial agriculture. The reverse seems more likely - that industrial agriculture is being and will be strengthened by high oil prices.
Powering Civilization to 2050 The first of three posts laying out a scenario for how we could get to a fairly close to carbon neutral civilization by 2050, without major collapse or disaster (if I was in charge in of the world). This post looked at energy, and argued that extrapolating the learning curve of solar power, it was possible to see energy becoming cheap again by 2050, based primarily on solar.
Four Billion Cars in 2050? Second of the "2050" series: Guesstimates on how many cars there might be by 2050, and how they might be powered.
Food to 2050 The third in the "2050" series: Whether there are likely to be limitations on feeding the world's population to 2050 in a cautiously optimistic scenario.
Read more posts by Stuart Staniford
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Theory of Geopolitical Disruptions to Oil Supply
Discusses several non-geological feedback loops that may have a dramatic impact on the course of resource depletion.
Mexico, A Nation-State Dissolves
Addresses the geopolitical instability in Mexico as a potential bellwether for the Nation-State structure generally, and its potential impact on oil production and exports.
The Problem of Growth
How the fundamental structure of our civilization demands perpetual growth and is therefore inherently unsustainable, as well as potential structural solutions.
Oil Demand Destruction and Brittle Systems
Argues that demand destruction tends to make remaining demand less elastic, and therefore makes systems more brittle and vulnerable to future supply shocks.
Predator-Prey Dynamics in Oil Prices
Argues that oil demand, supply, and prices can be modeled similar to predator-prey systems in nature.
A series of posts on the potential for suburbia post-peak.
A Resilient Suburbia? 1: Sunk Cost & Credit Markets
A Resilient Suburbia? 2: Cost of Commuting
A Resilient Suburbia? 3: Weighing the Potential for Self-Sufficiency
A Resilient Suburbia 4: Accounting for the Value of Decentralization
The Renewables Gap
Discussion of the challenges of a societal transition to renewable sources of energy, and especially the "gap" between the beginning of massive investment and the beginning of significant levels of renewable energy generation.
Read more posts by Jeff Vail
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Will Wartime Mobilisation Address Peak Oil?
A look at Lester Brown's call for wartime mobilisation.
Nuclear Britain
Reviews the history and future of civilian nuclear power in Britain.
Climate Change – an alternative approach
Rather than attempting to reduce emissions be reducing demand, can the same be achieved by limiting fossil fuel production?
Jonathon Porritt: Peak Oil and Climate Change
Prominent environmentalist brings together these two issues.
Goodbye Helium, Goodbye Brainscans
Non-Renewable resource scarcity, the case of Helium.
Read more posts by Chris Vernon
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Cutler Cleveland - Energy Transitions Past and Future
Herman Daly: Towards a Steady State Economy
Herman Daly on the Credit Crisis, Financial Assets, and Real Wealth
Jay Hanson: America 2.0
Walter Youngquist: Unique Times -- and the Future
Christopher Smith: Aviation and Oil Depletion
Nick Rouse: Will Nuclear Fusion Fill the Gap Left by Peak Oil?
Dave Pollard: It's Our Turn to Eat: How Politics Works and Why Activism is So Important
Lester R. Brown: The Oil Intensity of Food
Alan Drake: Multiple Birds – One Silver BB: A synergistic set of solutions to multiple issues focused on Electrified Railroads
Debbie Cook: How Will Local Governments Respond to Large Increases in Energy Bills?
Aaron Newton: The Four Day Work Week: Sixteen Reasons Why This Might Be an Idea Whose Time Has Come
Glenn Morton: Holding Daniel Yergin and CERA Accountable
Michael Vickerman: A federal energy policy: can it happen here?
Brad Lancaster - Eight Principles of Successful Rainwater Harvesting
Dave Rutledge: The Coal Question and Climate Change
Jeffrey J. Brown: The ELP Plan: Economize; Localize & Produce
Jean Laherrère: Arctic Oil and Gas Ultimates
Jean Laherrère: Hydrates updated
Jean Laherrère: Forecasts on Saudi Arabia liquids production
Jean Laherrère: Update on US GOM from MMS, EIA and Scout Data
Sterling Smith: Energy Vision 2050
Douglas B. Reynolds: Peak oil and the Fall of the Soviet Union: Lessons on the 20th Anniversary of the Collapse
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This list isn't exhaustive nor final but what the authors sent in (and we are still missing a few authors).
Eni announces important new discovery in Mozambique
The results for this well drilled in the southern part of Area 4 are of particular significance. The Coral discovery is estimated to contain between 7 and 10 tcf of gas in place exclusively located
Categories: Industry News
The importance of Skills Development
The recent clash between the DA and Cosatu, highlights the critical space skills development and talent management occupies in the South African industry. This puts the spotlight squarely on responsible skills and talent management.
We will no doubt see this debate escalating over the next months.
Skills development remains a critical requirement for profitability, sustainability and economic growth.
Categories: Skills Blog
Taipan Resources announces proposed merger with Lion Petroleum Corp
Lion Petroleum Corp. is an independent oil and gas exploration company with interests in 9.7 million gross oil and gas exploration acres in Block 1 and Block 2B onshore Kenya. Lion currently holds a 2
Categories: Industry News
Africa Oil provides update on Puntland drilling
Africa Oil Corp. TSX VENTUREAOIOMXAOI quotAfrica Oilquot or the quotCompanyquot is pleased to provide an update on the drilling program in Puntland Somalia. The Shabeel well has reac
Categories: Industry News
Drumbeat: May 16, 2012
U.S. energy independence is no longer just a pipe dream
Every president since Richard Nixon has called for the U.S. to wean itself from needing oil from unstable or unsavory countries. The nation's new-found energy riches are likely to bring that ambition closer to reality in the next two decades, according to many forecasters.
It's no pipe dream. The U.S. is already the world's fastest-growing oil and natural gas producer. Counting the output from Canada and Mexico, North America is "the new Middle East," Citigroup analysts declare in a recent report.
The U.S. Energy Information Agency says U.S. oil imports will drop 20% by 2025. Oil giant BP projects the U.S. will get 94% of its energy domestically by 2030, up from 77% now, as oil imports fall by half. Energy billionaire T. Boone Pickens, a major investor in oil and natural-gas companies, said the U.S. can at least end oil imports from Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, about half its total, through new drilling and by shifting diesel-swilling trucks to natural gas. Any other oil needs should be from politically stable allies such as Canada, Pickens said.
Most enticing, a team of analysts and economists at Citigroup argues that the U.S., or at least North America, can achieve energy independence by 2020, as more domestic production and doubling down on conservation produce a virtuous cycle. The U.S. can make itself a net exporter of crude oil, refined products and natural gas — says Citigroup energy strategist Seth Kleinman.
Oil Drops to Six-Month Low on Rising Stockpiles, Greek Crisis Oil dropped to the lowest price in more than six months in New York after U.S. crude stockpiles increased and talks to form a coalition government in Greece collapsed, raising concern the region’s debt crisis will worsen.
Budget-minded consumers skimping on summer travel
Gas was averaging around $3.85 per gallon when AAA spoke with 315 would-be travelers from April 20 to 24. The survey showed that those making under $50,000 a year will make up about a quarter of all Memorial Day travelers, down from nearly a third a year ago. Higher gas prices eat up a larger share of lower-income families' household budgets.
AAA says the 66 cent increase in the average gas price from January through early April made many people skittish about taking long road trips. The average trip will be 642 miles this Memorial Day, compared with 792 miles. Half of those surveyed said they'll travel less than 400 miles.
Petrobras Quarterly Profit Beats Estimates on Oil Export Growth
Petroleo Brasileiro SA, the world’s biggest oil producer in deep waters, said first-quarter profit topped analysts’ expectations because of increased revenue from crude exports and higher fuel prices.
North Dakota passes Alaska in oil production
BISMARCK, N.D. (AP) — North Dakota has passed Alaska to become the second-leading oil-producing state in the nation, trailing only Texas, state officials said Tuesday.
North Dakota oil drillers pumped 17.8 million barrels in March, with a daily average of 575,490 barrels, Assistant State Mineral Resources Director Bruce Hicks. That compares to 17.5 million barrels in Alaska, though still far behind Texas.
North Sea oil output at 2012 low, supporting Brent
LONDON (Reuters) - Crude oil output from the North Sea will fall by 2.8 percent in June to its lowest this year due to oilfield glitches and natural declines, helping support the price of global benchmark Brent crude.
Supply from 12 North Sea crudes will average 2.11 million barrels per day (bpd), compared with 2.17 million bpd in May, Reuters calculations based on shipping schedules showed on Wednesday.
Gas prices fall as main Norway supply restarts
(Reuters) - British prompt gas prices fell on Wednesday morning ahead of the scheduled return from maintenance of Norway's Ormen Lange gas processing plant, which is expected to boost supplies.
Tom Murphy: Time to Be Honest With Ourselves About Our Looming Energy Risks
What we are really missing is the liquid fuel. It is very difficult to transition from solar, nuclear, whatever you want into the liquid fuels that allow us to move ourselves around, it is very important in agriculture. And it is, I think...that is where the pinch point will come. There are certainly sources that can be labeled as abundant. The gulf is really one of practicality more than one of the sheer energy scale. That is a little bit harder to quantify. So you can quantify the abundance and how much you might get out of a certain source. But it is very hard to quantify things like public acceptance or how difficult it will be to pull off things like intermittency, how to deal with the storage, practical storage solutions. All of these are very tricky.
And one perspective is that we have known since 1970 roughly that fossil fuel peak was coming at some point. We knew that we needed alternatives in the 70s. We had lots of discussion of alternative energies. Forty years later we really aren’t that much further along. We sort of don’t have any new players, and it feels to me that if the liquid fuels decline in the next few decades, which I think is likely, we have already got the players on the stage right now.
Acknowledging the Arrival of Peak Government
The twin peaks of oil and government are causally linked: central government's great era of expansion has been fueled by abundant, cheap liquid fuels. As economies powered by abundant cheap energy expanded, so did tax revenues.
Peeking at Peak Oil: book review
The leader of the world's foremost Peak Oil research group is Kjell Aleklett, Professor of Physics at the University of Uppsala in Sweden. He has just published a book on Peak Oil that summarises a decade of scientific research.
Kjell's book is truly remarkable but not only as an unparalleled analysis of the reality and implications of Peak Oil. The book is also a unique example of how art can be used to assist the understanding of science. For these reasons I believe Kjell's book will soon be recognised both as the definitive work on Peak Oil and also as a unique scientific text. I simply do not see how it can be surpassed – unless there is another person who is willing to devote a decade of their life to building up a research enterprise that has now published over 30 peer-reviewed scientific papers on Peak Oil and related issues. Of course, there is no other person than Kjell.
How high priced oil is changing our lives: Fewer cars and commuters, but also lower emissions
TORONTO Only rich people will be able to afford cars. Everyone else will be taking public transit.
Commuters will move into Toronto and other urban centres, leaving the suburbs to revert to their former status as farmland.
The only provinces creating jobs will be those with oil. The poorest regions may resort to job-sharing.
Such is the controversial/bleak/contrarian view in Jeff Rubin’s latest book The End of Growth, published by Random House Canada.
Book Review: The End of Growth
What would happen if world economic growth, on a real, aggregate and average basis, stopped? Would houses be built? Would cars be purchased? Would people still work gainfully and consume? Richard Heinberg’s The End of Growth argues we’re nearing a watershed moment—“transitioning us from decades of economic growth to decades of economic contraction.”
UAE to merge with 'Gas OPEC'
The UAE has won cabinet approval to join the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF), an intergovernmental organization of the world's leading gas exporters, said a report.
Moody’s maintains negative outlook on Chesapeake Energy
Moody’s is maintaining its negative outlook on Chesapeake Energy, despite an announcement late Friday of a $3 billion unsecured loan that the company will use to pay down its $4 billion revolving credit facility.
Chesapeake Energy Said to Increase Term Loan to $4 Billion
Chesapeake Energy Corp. (CHK), the second- largest U.S. gas producer, increased the size of a term loan it’s seeking to pay off a revolving credit line to $4 billion from $3 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
“That level of demand is an encouraging sign of the market’s demand for Chesapeake debt at these price levels,” Brian Gibbons, an analyst at CreditSights Inc. in New York, wrote in an e-mail.
Chesapeake's Rapidly Declining Stock Is Putting Employees' Retirement Savings At Risk
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The woes of Chesapeake Energy Corp are hitting shareholders hard, including its employees.
Thousands of Chesapeake workers have retirement portfolios that are heavily invested in Chesapeake stock, which has declined sharply following revelations about Chief Executive Aubrey K. McClendon's business dealings.
But while retail and institutional investors have sold the stock, employees don't always have that option.
China Doubling Gas Use Makes Ex-Clothing Retailer Target
China Gas Holdings Ltd., the utility that began life as an online retailer, has become the industry’s hottest property as China plans to double use of natural gas and replace coal in the biggest-polluting nation.
Naftogaz Ukrainy forecasts average annual imported Russian gas price at $440 for 2012
Each month, Ukraine shells out around $1 billion for imported Russian gas, which greatly surpasses the price of the acquired modern SEFDR, with the help of which Naftogaz counts on significantly expanding Ukrainian gas production, Bakulin said.
"Ukraine pays around $1 billion each month for imported natural gas. For the year, that ends up being an amount equal to the cost of 28 drilling rigs like Petro Hodovanets. Therefore, at the current natural gas price of $425, the first billion cubic meters produced with the help of this rig will compensate for its cost," he said.
Genel Energy takes chance with another stake in Kurdistan
Genel Energy, the company headed by the former BP chief executive Tony Hayward, is expanding its operations in Kurdistan.
The move comes despite a renewed bar on exports from the autonomous region and an unresolved payments dispute between Baghdad and Erbil.
Korea Gas, Shell Start Discussions on Canada LNG Project
Royal Dutch Shell Plc and three Asian partners will jointly develop a liquefied natural gas export project in Canada’s British Columbia province and are in talks with local communities to win their support.
Trafigura, Mercuria Said to Rent Vopak Singapore Fuel Storage
Trafigura Beheer BV, the world’s third-biggest independent oil trader, and Mercuria Energy Group Ltd. rented fuel-oil storage in Singapore from Royal Vopak NV after Westport Petroleum Inc. ended its contract for the space, according to four people with knowledge of the deals.
Keystone isn't the only pipeline
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- At least a dozen new oil pipeline projects are slated to move forward in the United States over the next few years, bringing controversial sources of new crude to market despite the holdup of a portion of the Keystone pipeline expansion.
Some of the projects reverse the flow of existing pipelines.
Angola's crude exports set to fall in July
LONDON (Reuters) - Angola's crude oil exports are expected to fall in July from June, marking a drop in volume for the third consecutive month, a provisional loading schedule showed on Wednesday.
Traders attributed the fall in overall volume, which they said was significant, to the reduced exports of Angola's key Girassol crude due to maintenance at the oil field.
Shell seeks to cut targets in Iraq
Royal Dutch Shell is in talks with Iraq to cut its output target for the giant Majnoon oilfield, a move that could prompt other companies to seek similar revisions.
The European oil major won the rights to develop the giant oilfield in 2009, and is contractually obliged to increase production to 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd). But in a meeting held with government officials last month, the company proposed to cut the target to 1 million bpd, reduce spending, and extend the period under which peak production will be sustained, documents seen by Reuters show.
Experts differ in assessing Iran's oil and gas opportunities in Caspian Sea
Azerbaijan, Baku / Trend / Iran has stated about launching the oil and gas extraction operations in Iran's sector of the Caspian Sea.
Iran's oil minister Rostam Qasemi said earlier that the first "oil" torch will be sparked on the "Amir Kabir" platform (Alborz).
Iran seen losing 500,000 barrels of oil shipments daily
Iran's oil exports have the potential to fall another 300,000 to 500,000 barrels a day or more when the European Union's embargo takes effect in July, Reuters reported referring to Barclays Plc.
The decline will extend existing losses of 500,000 barrels a day, Barclays analysts led by Helima Croft in London said in an e-mailed report yesterday.
Iranians feel the pain of sanctions: 'Everything has doubled in price'
TEHRAN – The economy here is in shambles, according to Iranians, whether the government will admit it or not.
The United States, the European Union and the U.N. have imposed tough economic sanctions against Iran –- blocking access to the international banking system and hurting sales of Iranian crude oil -– as a way to persuade Tehran to abandon its nuclear program.
Will have more talks with India on Iran oil import: US
Tweet
WASHINGTON: The US has said that it will have more consultations with India on New Delhi reducing dependence on Iranian crude.
"There is more progress to be made and that's what Carlos is talking about and we will have more on his consultations after they are complete," US State Department spokesperson Victoria Nuland said on Tuesday.
Libya currently producing nearly 1.5 mil b/d crude: NTC official
Dubai (Platts) - Libya is currently pumping nearly 1.5 million b/d of crude and expects to achieve "normal" pre-war production levels of 1.6 million b/d by mid-2012, Abdulbaset Abadi, a member of the oil committee at the National Transitional Council, said Wednesday.
EU carries out strikes on Somali pirates
BRUSSELS (AP) – The European Union naval force patrolling the Indian Ocean on Tuesday carried out its first air strikes against pirate targets on shore, with a pirate reporting that the raid destroyed speed boats, fuel depots and an arms store.
Do we know enough to ensure safe Arctic drilling?
FOR the oil and gas industry, the Arctic Ocean is the final frontier. Beneath the ocean floor lies an estimated 90 billion barrels of recoverable oil - about 13 per cent of the global total. As the sea ice retreats and traditional sources of hydrocarbons dwindle, the pressure to drill is becoming irresistible.
It now seems inevitable that this harsh environment will be opened up to oil and gas production, which poses a big question: how much scientific research is "enough" to ensure safe drilling in the Arctic Ocean?
Total stops gas leak at N.Sea Elgin platform
(Reuters) - Total has succeeded in plugging a well at its North Sea Elgin platform that has been leaking gas for more than seven weeks, the French oil group said on Wednesday.
Ukraine sees 2017 for commercial shale gas output
(Reuters) - Royal Dutch Shell and Chevron Corp, Ukraine's partners for exploring and developing shale gas, will start commercial gas production in 2017, a government minister said on Wednesday.
"Drilling is likely to start next year," Environment and Natural Resources Minister Eduard Stavitsky told a news conference of plans which focus on two potentially large shale gas fields.
Taxpayers Pay as Fracking Trucks Overwhelm Rural Cow Paths
A surge in hydraulic fracturing to get gas and oil trapped in rock means drillers need to haul hundreds of truckloads of sand, water and equipment for a single well. Drilling that added jobs and tax revenue for many states also has increased traffic on roads too flimsy to handle the 80,000-pound (36,300 kilogram) trucks that serve well sites.
The resulting road damage will cost tens of millions of dollars to fix and is catching officials from Pennsylvania to Texas off guard. Measures to ensure that roads are repaired don’t capture the full cost of damage, potentially leaving taxpayers with the bill, according to Lynne Irwin, director of Cornell University’s local roads program in Ithaca, New York.
Some attack plans bolstered, others eased at nukes
The U.S. government has adopted the first set of comprehensive changes in the emergency planning program for communities near nuclear power plants since its creation after the Three Mile Island accident in 1979.
Sustainable energy for all focus of summit
Nearly two billion people, about one-third of the world’s population, don't have access to energy, according to the United Nations.
So the leading goal for the upcoming 2012 United Nations Earth Summit is “energy for all” by the year 2030, mostly from renewable and sustainable resources.
Britain is rising to the challenge of greening our economy
It's clear that with unprecedented pressure on our natural resources and our climate, the world economy needs to "green up". I want UK businesses to be in the vanguard of that move. On Wednesday, I'll take my seat alongside British business leaders at the Aldersgate Rio +20 Business Summit where we'll debate the opportunities – and the challenges – of transforming our whole economy to one geared towards long-term green growth.
Can we please just declare the end of 'peak oil' and start worrying about something important?
Apparently something terrible happens when we get to peak oil. I've never really quite understood the argument myself, but when we've used half of all the oil then civilisation collapses or something. I'm not sure why this should happen: we don't start starving when there's only half a loaf of bread left. But I am assured that something awful does happen.
Small Wind Farms to Grow as U.S. Tax Incentives Expand
Installations of wind farms with less than 20 megawatts of capacity may rise to a record this year if lawmakers expand a federal tax credit.
At least 44 wind farms were built last year to serve individual U.S. communities, often with financial support from local residents. They made up 6.7 percent of the total capacity installed, up from 5.6 percent in 2010 and the most to date, according to data compiled by the American Wind Energy Association.
Surprise! SUVs are more popular than ever
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- If you thought the "SUV craze" was over, you're wrong. Very wrong. Market share for SUVs in recent months is the largest it has ever been.
During the height of the so-called "SUV craze" in the late 1990s and early 2000s, about one in five vehicles sold in America was an SUV. Today, in an era of near $4 gasoline and heightened environmental awareness, nearly one in three vehicles sold is an SUV.
Ferrari goes green
The Italian firm, one of the most elite names in motoring, indicated that one of its glitziest products, the Enzo, will be released in a hybrid version.
Economic growth sows unhappiness in China: study
"There are many who believe that well-being is increased by economic growth, and that the faster the growth, the happier people are. There could hardly be a better country than China to test these expectations," said lead author Richard Easterlin, professor of economics at the University of Southern California.
"But there is no evidence of a marked increase in life satisfaction in China of the magnitude that might have been expected due to the enormous multiplication in per capita consumption," said Easterlin, who is known for his work in the 1970s on how happiness is often not linked to wealth, coined the Easterlin Paradox.
"Indeed people are slightly less happy overall, and China has gone from being one of the most egalitarian countries in the world in terms of life satisfaction to one of the least."
Grads, pursue a realistic dream
Finding cheap housing is the best thing you can do to improve your balance sheet — freeing up far more cash than cutting out those lattes. The trick for young grads is to keep that same mindset through life, as the huge house that will eat up a third of your income starts beckoning. Rethink what's sold as the American Dream— ownership of a house you have to stretch to afford — and you might discover the real American Dream. That is, the freedom to pursue happiness.
Stocks-to-Use Ratio Updates for Corn, Wheat, Rice, Soybeans, Cotton and Sugar
Twice a year, I try to update my ongoing stocks-to-use ratio charts using the latest available data on U.S. and global crop supplies. The stocks-to-use ratio reflects the excess of supply against demand. It is calculated by dividing the ending stocks of a commodity by the total demand of that commodity and is one of the most useful statistics that we have for measuring supply and demand of food commodities. Of course, these ratios are only as good as the data that goes into the calculations, but in our electronic information age these numbers are hopefully improving all of the time.
Q. and A.: The Most Endangered Rivers
Q. Of these 10 rivers, there seem to be some patterns. Several are threatened by the same types of activities: energy development or dam- and reservoir-building.
A. There’s a threat from natural gas development and fracking in the Grand River in Ohio and the Hoback in Wyoming. There’s a threat to water quality as chemicals are injected into groundwater and the disposal of the fluids is not regulated, and also a threat to water quantity because massive amounts of water are used.
Your Heart on Air Pollution: An Olympic Case Study
Although the period of blue skies in Beijing may have been fleeting, researchers from the University of Southern California (USC) and colleagues have found that even such a small window of cleaner air may have proved useful for residents' cardiovascular health. That's according to a new study published yesterday in the Journal of the American Medical Association.
Dam Project Threatens a Way of Life in Peru
BOCA SANIBENI, Peru — Along the murky waters of the Ene River, in a remote jungle valley on the verdant eastern slopes of the Andes, the rhythmic humming of an outboard motor draws the stares of curious Ashaninka children.
With encroachment from settlers and speculators, and after a devastating war against Shining Path rebels a decade ago, the indigenous Ashaninkas’ hold is precarious. And they are now facing a new peril, the proposed 2,200-megawatt Pakitzapango hydroelectric dam, which would flood much of the Ene River valley.
Pondering That Green Label
Recently I stopped at an upmarket cafeteria near Rockefeller Center in Manhattan where plaques and posters proclaimed that it had been certified by the Green Restaurant Association, a nonprofit group that is endorsed by the Environmental Defense Fund, the National Resources Defense Council and the New York State Restaurant Association. After buying a sandwich, I asked for tap water. They informed me that the cafe only offered bottled water.
How can a restaurant with a green rating not offer tap water?! I was floored.
Only biofuels will cut plane emissions
We need something that can deliver emission reductions from existing fleets of planes – and the solution already exists.
UK climate experiment cancelled on patent concern
LONDON (Reuters) - British scientists have abandoned an experiment to test the possibility of spraying particles into the upper atmosphere to stem global warming, largely due to concerns over a patent for some of the technology, the project's leader said.
UN to Help Give World’s Poor Fairer Share of Carbon Credits
Efforts by the United Nations to ease rules for carbon-cutting projects may encourage investments in small-scale projects in solar water heaters and efficient cookstoves in Africa and Asia.
The UN Clean Development Mechanism’s Executive Board, regulator of the world’s second-biggest carbon market by traded volume, agreed last week to consider ways to quicken the approval procedure for some emission-reduction activities. The new process would help ease difficulties facing projects that produce fewer emission reductions than others, including those that create usable fuel from animal dung and renewable energy initiatives small enough to power a light-bulb.
Bangladesh seeks $10 billion grant to tackle effects of climate change
Bangladesh asks donors and development partners for a $10 billion grant as financial assisstance to tackle the adverse effects of climate change and to protect the country's existing infrastructure.
Hawaii’s Beaches Are in Retreat, and Its Way of Life May Follow
Little by little, Hawaii’s iconic beaches are disappearing.
Most beaches on the state’s three largest islands are eroding, and the erosion is likely to accelerate as sea levels rise, the United States Geological Survey is reporting.
'Nobody is exempt from climate responsibility' (interview with Christiana Figueres)
To keep below this 2 °C target, the science says we have to peak our greenhouse gas emissions before 2020. But we won't have an agreement until 2015, or global binding targets until 2020. Doesn't that make keeping below the 2 °C target impossible?
That very much depends on what effort is made now by governments. They must move forward with their negotiations for legal agreement by 2015. But they mustn't wait until 2015 to start their mitigation efforts, but rather accelerate mitigation efforts right now. They must also adopt the policies that give the right signals and incentives for the private sector to come on board.
Cecon ASA revenues was NOK 93.4 million in the first quarter of 2012
Cecon ASA presents its Consolidated Interim Financial Report for First Quarter 2012. Highlights of Q1 2012 Successful completion of installation offshore Nigeria Revenues Q1 NOK 93.4 million
Categories: Industry News
BG Group announce fifth consecutive Tanzania gas discovery
BG Group today announced its fifth consecutive Tanzania gas discovery with the Mzia1 exploration well located in Block 1 offshore southern Tanzania. Mzia1 is BG Group39s first discovery within
Categories: Industry News
Ophir Energy announce Mzia-1 Gas Discovery - Block 1 offshore Tanzania
Ophir Energy plc announce its fifth consecutive gas discovery offshore Tanzania. The Mzia1 well in Block 1 intersected a 178m gas bearing column and 55m of net pay in the Upper Cretaceous. Mean in pl
Categories: Industry News
Fifth Tanzanian Gas Discovery for BG Group
BG Group makes gas discovery with its Mzia-1 exploration well offshore Tanzania.
Fifth Tanzanian Gas Discovery for BG Group
BG Group makes gas discovery with its Mzia-1 exploration well offshore Tanzania.
Categories: Industry News
Anadarko extends exploration success with new discovery area offshore Mozambique
Anadarko Petroleum has announced the Golfinho exploration well discovered a new major natural gas accumulation nearly 20 miles 32 kms northwest of its Prosperidade complex within the Offshore Area
Categories: Industry News
Cove Energy announce Golfinho well finds major new gas discovery area offshore Mozambique
Cove Energy plc AIMCOV the AIM quoted upstream oil and gas company together with the operator Anadarko Petroleum Corporation is delighted to announce that the Golfinho exploration well has disco
Categories: Industry News
CAMAC Inks Kenya Production Sharing Contracts
CAMAC Energy has signed PSCs with the government of The Republic of Kenya for previously awarded exploration Blocks L1B.
CAMAC Inks Kenya Production Sharing Contracts
CAMAC Energy has signed PSCs with the government of The Republic of Kenya for previously awarded exploration Blocks L1B.
Categories: Industry News
Cove's New Mozambique Gas Find Raises Prospect of Counterbid
Cove has made a major natural-gas discovery offshore Mozambique, raising the possibility of a counter bid offer for the company to rival that already on the table from Shell.
